News Excerpt:

West Asia is in flux. The military confrontation which started between Israel and Hamas has snowballed into a regional security crisis. 

• Hezbollah, Kataib Hezbollah, Hashad al-Shabi, Houthis, Iran, Pakistan and the United States are all now part of an expanding conflict theatre.

How has the Israel-Hamas war spilled over?

• When Israel launched its war on Gaza, Hezbollah (the Lebanese Shia group) that Iran backs, fired rockets at Israeli forces in the Shebaa Farms, an Israeli-controlled territory that Lebanon claims as its own, in solidarity with the Palestinians.
• Arab countries, too, were upset with Israel’s indiscriminate bombing and stuck to the path of diplomacy to put pressure on the Jewish state.
  • Iran-backed militias also opened new fronts against Israel.
• Houthis, the Shia militias of Yemen, started attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea in mid-November 2023 in “solidarity with the Palestinians.”
  • Houthis, who control much of Yemen, including its Red Sea coast, have used sea denial tactics to target dozens of ships ever since. 
  • They forced several shipping giants to suspend operations in the Red Sea, which connects the Mediterranean Sea with the Arabian Sea (and the Indian Ocean) through the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
• When Houthi attacks imperilled the Red Sea traffic, the U.S., which continues to support Israel’s war on Gaza, started carrying out airstrikes in Yemen, targeting Houthi positions.

• Hashad al-Shabi, the Shia Mobilisation Forces of Iraq and Syria, who Iran also backs, launched more than 100 attacks against U.S. troops deployed in the two countries.
• In retaliation, the U.S. carried out attacks in Syria and killed a commander of Hashad al-Shabi in a hit in Baghdad, which led to protests in Iraq.
• Israel has carried out multiple strikes inside Syria and Lebanon, killing Hamas, Hezbollah and Iranian commanders.
• Iran carried out strikes on January 16 in Iraq’s Kurdistan, Syria and Pakistan, claiming to have hit a Mossad operational centre and Sunni Islamist militants. 
• In retaliation, Pakistan carried out air strikes on Iran on January 18.

Key players of the West Asia conflict:

• There are three major operational centres - Israel, Iran and the U.S.
• Israel says it has the right to attack Gaza until it meets its objectives - dismantling Hamas and releasing hostages. 
• Iran is the main backer of all anti-Israel non-state actors in West Asia, be it Hamas, the Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Houthis or the Shia militias of Iraq and Syria. 
• The U.S., which has a widespread military presence in the region, has three objectives - 
• • To ensure the security of Israel, 
  • The security of America’s troops and assets deployed in the region,
  • The perseverance of the U.S.-led order in the region.

Changing regional order in West Asia:

• In the past, the U.S. had retained a domineering presence in West Asia, shaping its geopolitical outcomes, and America’s rivals were wary of breaching certain red lines. 
  • This was the backbone of the U.S.-led order in West Asia. 
• Iran had stayed out of it since 1979, it never risked a direct war with the U.S. or Israel. 

• The current crisis suggests that the old order is in tatters -

• Iran-backed proxies are directly attacking both Israeli and American positions, while Iran is flexing its military muscle through cross-border attacks. 
• The Houthis have challenged the U.S.’s ability to provide security to one of the world’s busiest shipping routes. 
• Arab countries remain America’s allies but are increasingly frustrated with the USA’s unconditional support for Israel’s war on Gaza. 
• The U.S., despite its support for Israel, seems unable to push Israel to end its disastrous war and bring back some stability.

Conclusion:

The old order, anchored by America’s domineering regional presence, is in tatters. What West Asia needs is a new security equilibrium. There has to be an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and peace between Israel and Palestinians could be used as a springboard for further talks aimed at regional security between the main stakeholders - Israel, Arab nations, Iran, the U.S. and their respective allies and proxies.