Myanmar’s civil war and India’s interests

GS Paper II

News Excerpt:

A few weeks ago, the Arakan Army captured Paletwa in the Chin State, which lies on Myanmar’s western borders with Bangladesh and India.

Background:

In 2021, the Myanmar military leaders ousted the elected government. Now, three years later, the opposition to military rule has gained in strength. Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) and the People’s Defence Forces control many towns in different parts of the country. The Chin armed groups and the Arakan army have been fighting the Myanmar military.

About the news:

  • The town of Paletwa has sparked a conflict between the Chin and Arakan ethnic groups.
    • Paletwa is a commercial town on the Kaladan River, and therefore, any armed group with a significant presence in the town would benefit from the economic activity in the region.
    • Paletwa's strategic location on the western border makes it a good launchpad for Arakan Army operations.
  • The majority of Paletwa's residents are Chin, who view the town as part of their homeland. However, some in the Rakhine State, previously known as Arakans argue that the town was historically part of the Arakan Hill Tracts during colonial rule and should have been part of their province.

Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP):

  • India and Myanmar signed a framework agreement in 2008 to address the geo-economic and geo-political challenges of northeast India.
    • Transporting goods to and from northeast India via the Siliguri corridor is a logistical challenge, and in a worst-case scenario with China, there is a possibility of movement along the corridor being adversely affected.
  • The Kaladan project aimed to provide an alternative route to the sea for northeast India.
    • Kolkata to Sittwe port (Myanmar) - Shipping - 539 km
    • Sittwe to Paletwa (River Kaladan) - Inland Water Transport (IWT) - 158 km
    • Paletwa to Indo-Myanmar Border (in Myanmar) - Road - 110 km
    • Border to NH-54 (Lawngtlai) (in India) - Road - 100 km.
  • However, operationalization was delayed due to rugged terrain, inadequate inter-departmental coordination, political instability, and security challenges in Myanmar.
  • Although the Sittwe port and inland water terminal at Paletwa have been completed, road construction faces challenges due to the prevailing security situation in Myanmar.

Map-1 shows the route of India’s proposed Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project.

Map 2 shows Chin State where current tensions are playing out.

Concerns for India:

  • Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP):
    • The developments in Paletwa will impact the Indian government’s Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP) in Myanmar, which has already faced significant delays.
  • China’s tacit support to armed groups:
    • There are reports which suggest that the Arakan Army receives considerable funding and military equipment from China. If such reports are true, there will be concerns for India that China is using armed groups to slow down India’s connectivity projects in Myanmar.
    • The Arakan Army, along with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, is part of the Three Brotherhood alliance. The alliance has pledged to protect Chinese investments in Myanmar.
  • China’s investments in the region:
    • China has operationalised oil and natural gas pipelines from the Shwe gas fields near Kyaukpyu in the Rakhine State to Yunan province in China.
    • Recently, China signed supplementary agreements with the Myanmar military to operationalise the deep sea port and a special economic zone near Kyaukpyu.
    • There were renewed efforts to construct a railway line from China’s Yunnan to Kyaukpyu via Mandalay as part of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC).
  • Perception of Chinese influence:
    • Unlike India, China is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, which prompts many state and non-state actors in need of international support to be relatively more accommodating of China’s concerns.

Way forward:

  • The Chin and Arakan groups must agree on an inclusive governance framework for Paletwa and surrounding areas to maintain peace. Inter-ethnic solidarity must be improved by accommodating each other's perspectives on ethnic boundaries. Scaling up humanitarian and development assistance with a broader spectrum of ethnic organisations and local people is crucial.
  • Since India is a liberal democracy, its external engagement will be closely monitored for its impact on sectarian/identity-based violence in its neighbourhood. The security agencies should constantly evaluate the modalities of engaging with armed groups on India’s borders and ways to counter the influence of China.
  • The Kaladan project necessitates competent technical personnel and experts to monitor Chin-Arakan ethnic relations, military-EAO contestation, sectarian violence in Rakhine state, and the growing Chinese presence in Myanmar. The Kaladan experience suggests bringing these experts together to expedite connectivity and development assistance projects in India's immediate neighbourhood.

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