GS Paper II

News Excerpt: 

Two years have passed since Russia’s unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The military conflict between Ukraine and Russia appears to be continuing without any end in sight. 

Russia-Ukraine War:

• Russia’s war in Ukraine has entered its third year. 
• In February 2022, many thought the war would be a swift Russian victory against Ukraine. 
• Instead, it has turned out to be the largest land war in Europe since the end of the Second World War.
• The war has pushed Russia to turn towards Asia and the Global South in general.
• While the West continues to support Ukraine in its bid to push back and weaken Russia. 
• Most countries, including India, remain neutral in this war.

Did Putin make a mistake?

• There is a widespread agreement among defence experts that President Vladimir Putin has made a critical strategic mistake by ordering the invasion of Ukraine.
• Ukraine is Europe’s second-largest country (after Russia)
• It is also a close ally of NATO, with less than 2,00,000 troops.
• Putin probably expected a quick victory, like he did in Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014. 
• But the West moved in with military assistance, training and international mercenaries (what Ukraine calls its “international legion”). 
• After his troops were forced to pull back from Kharkiv in 2022, Putin immediately ordered a partial mobilisation. 
• The Russians were prepared when Ukraine’s counteroffensive began. 

Where does the war stand now?

• Ukraine lost a significant number of its Western-supplied weapons during the counteroffensive and is waiting for fresh supplies.
• The aid from the U.S. to Ukraine is stalled in Congress due to opposition from Republicans.
• On the other side, the Russians are on the offensive.
• In December 2023, Russia claimed its first victory since the fall of Bakhmut by capturing Maryinka in Donetsk.
• Ukraine was forced to abandon Avdiivka, a strategically crucial town in Donetsk, after enduring months of fighting and substantial losses.

What is the West’s strategy?

• The West has pursued a two-fold strategy towards Ukraine.
• Providing economic and military assistance to Kyiv to sustain its fight against Russia.
• Implementing sanctions to weaken Russia's economy and military capabilities.
• Sanctions have inflicted significant damage on Russia, depriving it of over $430 billion in revenue and leading to reduced energy purchases from Europe.
• Also, sanctions have made it difficult for Moscow to acquire crucial technologies, such as microchips necessary for its defence industry.
• However, with Ukraine's failed counteroffensive and the uncertain political climate in Washington, particularly with the potential for a second Trump presidency, the effectiveness of the aid aspect of this policy is now uncertain.

How have the sanctions affected Russia?

• Russia has implemented diverse strategies to evade sanctions and sustain its economy.
• In response to decreased energy sales from Europe, Russia offered discounted crude oil to countries such as China, India, and Brazil.
• It assembled a ghost fleet of ships to continue oil exports independently of Western shipping entities and insurers.
• Russia imported technologies for defence by utilizing shell companies and private firms in neighbouring nations like Armenia or Turkey.
• Russia has diversified its currency usage away from the dollar by using the Chinese yuan for trade.
• Russia has forged stronger alliances with countries like Iran and North Korea, which are facing American sanctions.
• It has imported a range of weaponry from drones to cruise missiles and ammunition from Iran.
• China has ramped up its financial and trade connections with Russia, even exporting dual-use technologies.

How is the war transforming Russia?

• After assuming power, Putin has invested significant time in building robust economic ties with Europe, but these relationships are now strained.
• Russia's influence in its vicinity is waning, as evidenced by -
• Tensions with Armenia and its decision to suspend participation in the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
• Since the onset of the war, two neighbouring countries, Sweden and Finland, have joined NATO, extending the alliance's border with Russia.
• Russia's reliance on China is growing, although it is cautious not to disturb relations with India.
• Internally, the Russian state is intensifying its grip on society and cracking down on any dissent regarding the war.
• The Prigozhin rebellion of last year revealed vulnerabilities in the state apparatus built by Putin.
• The recent death of Alexei Navalny, the most outspoken critic of President Putin in Russia, further underscores criticism of Putin's treatment of dissent.
• If post-Soviet Russia was perceived as a "managed democracy," post-war Russia is increasingly resembling a tightly controlled authoritarian regime.

What does it mean for the world?

• The Western strategy of aiding Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia appears ineffective.
• The conflict has highlighted the limitations of Western influence in a changing global landscape.
• The trans-Atlantic alliance now requires support from major economies like China and India to enhance the efficacy of sanctions.
• While Russia has devised ways to circumvent sanctions, it has also suffered significant casualties and will grapple with the long-term repercussions.
• If there is one great power that stays relatively unscathed by this chaos, it is China.
• As Western countries corner Russia with sanctions, it will turn more towards Asia or to parts of the world that are not West.
• The war in Ukraine could lead to more collaboration between Russia and China, thus altering the global balance of power.

Way forward:

• Ukraine’s peace plans and Russia’s peace plans are in contradiction. 
• Ukraine’s peace plans are fundamentally premised on a return to the 1991 border, which is not acceptable to Russia. 
• Russia incorporated Crimea in 2014; more recently, it has taken large chunks of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolayiv, and Zaporizhzhia. 
• The Russians are not likely to accept any negotiation on these territories.
• It's imperative for all parties to step back from confrontation and devise a strategy to rebuild European security, including Russia, as a lasting settlement requires Russian involvement.