GS Paper III

News Excerpt:

India's Chief of Defence Staff recently mentioned the term "grey zone warfare" and said that it is the latest in informal warfare.

About Grey Zone Warfare

• Grey zone warfare generally means a middle, unclear space that exists between direct conflict and peace in international relations.
• The gray zone describes a set of activities that occur between peace (or cooperation) and war (or armed conflict). 
• A multitude of activities fall into this murky in-between—from nefarious economic activities, influence operations, and cyberattacks to mercenary operations, assassinations, and disinformation campaigns. 
• Generally, gray-zone activities are considered gradualist campaigns by state and non-state actors that combine non-military and quasi-military tools and fall below the threshold of armed conflict. 
• They aim to thwart, destabilize, weaken, or attack an adversary, and they are often tailored toward the vulnerabilities of the target state. 
• While gray-zone activities are nothing new, the onset of new technologies has provided states with more tools to operate and avoid clear categorization, attribution, and detection—all of which complicates the United States’ and its allies’ ability to respond. 
• One can argue that activities in the gray zone have always been a feature of great-power competition. 

Grey Zone Tactics against India:

Grey Zone warfare involves the use of various unconventional tactics and strategies that fall below the threshold of traditional warfare but still aim to advance a nation’s interests and influence. These measures are used by China to achieve its sovereignty goals while minimizing the risk of escalation. 

Here are some ways Grey Zone warfare is waged:

• Cyber Operations - This includes system intrusions to deny availability of information systems, hacking and stealing data, corrupting data, spreading disinformation, and conducting cyber espionage to disrupt or influence a target country’s critical infrastructure, political systems, or economy without causing direct physical harm.
• Information Warfare - Propaganda, rumours and fake news, social media manipulation, and psychological operations are used to shape public opinion, create divisions, and undermine trust in institutions within the target nation.
• Support to Proxy Forces - Providing support to non-state actors, insurgents, or militias in a way that enables them to advance the supporting nation’s agenda without officially engaging in direct conflict. During the 80s and 90s Chinese support to various insurgent movements in India’s north east was widely known and it continues till today.
• Economic Coercion - Imposing sanctions, trade restrictions, or manipulating financial markets to undermine the target nation’s economy or coerce policy changes without resorting to military action. Australia’s support to the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong led China to levy a 212 percent tariff on Australian wines in 2020.
• Political Subversion - Using covert means to influence elections, manipulate political processes, or support political groups or movements that align with the aggressor’s interests.
• Irregular Warfare - Deploying unconventional military tactics such as guerrilla warfare, sabotage, or asymmetric attacks by leveraging smaller, specialized units or non-traditional military forces forms part of Irregular Warfare.
• Legal and Diplomatic Manoeuvring - China is careful while exploiting legal or diplomatic loopholes, leveraging international institutions, or manipulating alliances to weaken the target country’s position on the global stage while proffering a justification for its own actions based on precepts and conventions of law.
• Military Intimidation - This involves the use of military assets to convey the threat of a potential military attack or a risk of military escalation. 
• The massing of PLA troops at the contested borders with India opposite Galwan in Ladakh was part of this military intimidation that went awry and China suffered many casualties – much more those suffered by the Indian side.

Conclusion:

Hence, Grey Zone Warfare is an important tactic in international relations that helps in making good relations with countries on some fronts that have issues on other fronts.