Decoding Putin's dramatic visit to the Gulf

GS Paper II

News Excerpt:

Vladimir Putin’s recent interactions with Gulf leaders have brought Russia into the mainstream of West Asian affairs and affirmed that the Sino-Russian alliance will challenge U.S. hegemony.

Objectives behind Putin's interactions with the major Gulf states:

  • Regional stability across the Gulf: 
    • Based on Russia’s close ties with Iran, Russia would work towards preventing the Gaza war from spreading across the region and conveyed the assurance that Iran would restrain the Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen in the interests of regional stability.
  • Diplomatic realignment: 
    • Russia would work to establish a deeper strategic and political alignment between the Gulf Cooperation Council (UAE, Kuwait, Oman) states and Iran, presenting Russia and China as guarantors of regional peace. 
    • Mr. Putin projected Russia as complementing China’s diplomatic role in the Gulf region.
  • On political influence of the U.S. from the Gulf:
    • Russia would focus on channeling the support of its Gulf interlocutors to the consolidation of this regional alignment so that, in the post-Gaza war scenario, they would act unitedly with Russia and China in managing regional political and diplomatic challenges, while excluding the U.S. from this arrangement.
  • Geopolitical balance:
    • The visit also showed that Russia is not isolated and that it has close friends in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which had previously been the US's closest allies in the area.
  • Building long-term trust with Russia’s approach towards the Gulf:
    • Mr. Putin declared that he will be seeking re-election in March 2024 and lead Russia at least till the end of this decade (2030).
    • This would assure his Gulf interlocutors that there would be continuity in Russia’s regional approach.

Conclusion:

Mr. Putin's recent meetings with Gulf leaders have thrust Russia into the center of West Asian affairs, reaffirming the Sino-Russian alliance's determination to challenge US hegemony and reshape the regional political order.

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