Consequences of Declining Fertility
As per the World Population Prospects (WPP) report 2022, the world's population will surpass 8 billion on November 15, 2022, but then again, the world's low fertility rates will face several issues in the future.
Consequences of Declining Fertility
Background -
As per the World Population Prospects (WPP) report 2022, the world's population will surpass 8 billion on November 15, 2022, but then again, the world's low fertility rates will face several issues in the future.
Credentials:
- Forewarning that the world population would reach 8.5 billion by 2030, average global fertility has been steadily dropping over the last 70 years.
- According to the WPP research, the average number of children per woman in the reproductive age group has decreased by 50% globally, from five children per woman in 1951 to 2.4 children in 2020.
Fertility rate at replacement level:
- Replacement-level fertility is a total fertility rate of roughly 2.1 children per woman.
- TFR of less than 2.1 children per woman shows that a generation is not generating enough offspring to replace itself, eventually decreasing the population.
- The total fertility rate (TFR) is the total number of children born or likely to be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were subject to the population's average age-specific fertility rate.
- The fifth phase of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) study shows that India's total fertility rate (TFR) has decreased from 2.2 in 2015-16 to 2.0 in 2019-21, demonstrating considerable success in population control strategies.
Global demographic change is happening faster than expected:
- The sharp reduction in births per woman is ascribed to a faster demographic shift in poorer nations than in wealthy ones.
- According to the WPP Report, the worldwide fertility rate has decreased from three in 1990 to 2.3 in 2021.
- Britain took 130 years to reduce its reproduction rate from five per woman in 1800 to two in 1930, whereas South Korea took only 20 years.
- Most modern economies now have fertility rates lower than the replacement rate of 2.1, with South Korea having the lowest at 1.05 children per woman.
- Sub-Saharan African nations are predicted to contribute more than half of the population increase after 2050 and continue to expand until 2100.
What is the Indian scenario?
- According to the most recent National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), India's fertility rate declined to 2.0 in 2021, a 10% drop in only five years.
- Despite the government initiating the world's first family planning programme in 1952, it took 25 years to reduce the fertility rate from 6.0 at independence to 5.0 now.
- It fell to four in the 1990s, when Kerala became the first state in India to have a fertility rate lower than the replacement level.
- Nowadays, most states have fertility rates below 2.1, and just five states have fertility rates over the replacement rate, according to the NFHS 2021: Bihar (3), Meghalaya (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.4), Jharkhand (2.3), and Manipur (2.2).
- The consistent decline in fertility rates can be ascribed to the following:
- Contraception usage has increased.
- More years of average education.
- Improved healthcare facilities.
- Women's average marriage age is rising.
Economic advantages of falling fertility include:
- Lower fertility rates are both a cause and a result of economic progress.
- Lower fertility has a favourable influence on women's education, reducing future generations' fertility.
- Fertility falls, and income grows as infrastructure, health care, and education improve.
- During the early years of low fertility, the working-age population outnumbers the dependent population, resulting in more significant economic revenue, investment, and savings.
- Reduced demand for land, water, and other resources benefit the environment.
The following are the economic consequences of decreased fertility:
- Japan and South Korea were early adopters of declining fertility rates in the early 2000s and are now experiencing a labour-force shortage.
- Since the 1990s, an increasing reliance ratio has resulted in near-zero GDP growth.
- They are also confronted with fiscal issues due to increased social security payments.
- To compensate for the declining working population, an influx of immigrants from countries with higher population growth may pose additional challenges, such as class and social conflicts.
- A study titled "The End of Economic Growth?" A Stanford economist argues in "Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population" that decreased fertility might reduce humanity's creative ability.
- The justification for this is the requirement for ideas in technological progress and productivity boosts that people can achieve rather than Machines or AI.
- It is predicted that by 2100, approximately 40% of the population will be elderly.
- The Great Demographic Reversal: Aging Societies, Falling Inequality, and Inflation is a book. According to Revival, a scarcity of labour supply will raise wages and inflation.
- A high reliance ratio puts additional strain on government funds, negatively impacting public finance.
Other consequences of reduced fertility include -
Military strength is dwindling:
- Population reduction will reduce the military-age population and hence military power.
Innovation is declining:
- A declining population also reduces the rate of innovation because younger employees and entrepreneurs often drive change.
Problems with funding entitlement programmes:
- Less working-age population means less government tax revenue and fewer social security services for the elderly.
- End-of-life care for the elderly will face a crisis due to a lack of caretakers.
How should we deal with declining fertility?
- Mitigation can be mitigated by implementing scientific and long-term policies.
- Reforms aimed at increasing labour market flexibility
- It would encourage working women to have more children while encouraging non-working moms to enter the labour force.
- Increasing fertility through different legislative initiatives, such as Germany's liberal labour laws, allow for more extended parental leave and perks.
- Denmark provides state-funded IVF for women under 40, while Hungary just nationalized IVF centres.
- Monthly payments and other monetary advantages are provided in Poland and Russia.
The Future Perspectives:
- The demographic dividend is reaping advantages across countries, but the below-replacement-level birth rate means a smaller payoff window than predicted.
- Although India's working-age population will continue to expand for several decades, fertility decreases must be monitored.
- Through liberal labour reforms, India can maintain sustained labour supply and production despite decreasing fertility.
- Encourage more female labour-force participation.
- A greater emphasis on diet and health.
