China-India state of play
Source: By Shubhajit Roy: The Indian Express
“If you and I don’t have trust, then the countries cannot have trust,” a senior Chinese government official said in Beijing recently. The official was referring to the trust deficit between India and China over the last four-and-half years of the border standoff in Ladakh.
This correspondent was part of an Indian media delegation that visited China at the invitation of the Chinese government. This was the first media delegation to visit the country since 2019 — after the Covid-19 pandemic and the border standoff.
Open for business
The message from several meetings with Chinese officials, members of the business community, and scholars and analysts in state-run think tanks and media organisations was clear: China wanted to move on in the bilateral relationship, and was open for business.
Senior Chinese officials mentioned the “chemistry” between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which they said was evident during the meeting of the two leaders on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia on 23 October.
The officials said the two sides were discussing ways to bring ties back to “normal” – as it was before the face-off started in April-May 2020 along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
The officials outlined their “wish-list”: resumption of “direct flights” between the countries, easing of visa curbs on Chinese nationals including diplomats and scholars, lifting of the ban on Chinese mobile apps, letting Chinese journalists report from India, allowing more Indian movies in Chinese theatres, etc.
Thaw after Galwan
All these restrictions and curbs were put after the bloody clashes in Galwan in June 2020, in which 20 Indian soldiers including a Colonel-rank officer and at least four Chinese soldiers were killed.
The Galwan clash was the deadliest along the border since 1967, and cast a dark shadow on political ties. After many rounds of discussions between the two countries, India announced a breakthrough on 21 October this year — and soldiers from both sides started patrols along the LAC.
The agreement on “patrolling arrangements” was an important beginning to the three-step process of disengagement, de-escalation and de-induction of troops. An important meeting took place this week to take the process forward.
On 18 September, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the G20 leaders’ summit in Rio de Janeiro in Brazil. The two Ministers discussed the “next steps in India-China relations”, according to the official statement issued by India.
Views from capitals
The Indian and Chinese statements after the Jaishankar-Wang meeting open a window to how New Delhi and Beijing are viewing the situation, and the way forward.
The Indian statement said that the “Ministers recognized that the disengagement in our border areas had contributed to the maintenance of peace and tranquility. The discussions focused on the next steps in India-China relations. It was agreed that a meeting of the Special Representatives and of the Foreign Secretary-Vice Minister mechanism will take place soon.”
The Chinese statement was more enthusiastic: “Wang Yi said President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a successful meeting in Kazan recently, and China-India relations have been restarted and re-launched, which is in line with the fundamental interests of the two peoples, the expectations of countries in the global South, and the right direction of history.”
The Indian statement was in sync with the way New Delhi has framed the state of bilateral ties — that the situation at the border is a precondition to the next steps. China, however, has taken it forward by describing the Modi-Xi meeting as a “restart and re-launch”.
In step — and not
On the next steps forward, there are both convergences and divergences.
The Indian statement said “among steps discussed were the resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra pilgrimage, data sharing on trans-border Rivers, direct flights between India and China and media exchanges”.
The Chinese statement said: “We should strive to make practical progress as soon as possible in the resumption of direct flights, mutual assignment of journalists and visa facilitation. Next year will mark the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and India, and the two sides should plan commemorative activities and encourage exchanges and visits in all fields and at all levels to enhance understanding and mutual trust.”
Both sides have talked about the resumption of direct flights and media exchanges.
There is one Indian journalist in Beijing currently; there are no Chinese reporters in Delhi. Journalists of both countries had to leave in recent years after their visas were not renewed. There is a strong feeling that journalists from each country must be allowed to report freely from the other.
However, India did not mention the 75th anniversary events, and China did not talk about the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra and river data-sharing.
Despite the divergences, it is important that India — which had taken a very strong line about not normalising ties until the border situation improves — has agreed to talk about the next steps. While officials and analysts in Beijing have been advocating the resumption of ties, India has been guarded and cautious, mindful of hardened public opinion over the last four-and-half years.
It is not clear yet when the next meeting of the Special Representatives and of the Foreign Secretary-Vice Minister mechanism will take place. The last SR-level talks took place in December 2019.
Next: de-escalation
In the most recent indication that India and China were moving to repair ties, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun met in Vientiane, Lao PDR, on the sidelines of the 11th ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus.
Singh said the two countries needed to “focus on cooperation rather than conflict”, and “emphasised and looked forward to greater trust and confidence building between the two sides through de-escalation”.
With 50,000 to 60,000 troops deployed on either side of the LAC in eastern Ladakh, de-escalation is an important next step. The two sides completed the process of disengagement at the two friction points ahead of Diwali.
The Chinese official in Beijing told The Indian Express, “If we don’t progress, we regress.” The Indian establishment is cautiously watching the border situation. De-escalation will be a key marker for the next steps.
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