GS Paper - II

President Vladimir Putin has approved changes to Russia’s nuclear weapons policy, and Moscow has urged the West to study them closely.

What happened?

• Putin signed a decree updating Russia’s nuclear doctrine, last published in 2020.
• The document, like the one it replaces, says Moscow sees nuclear weapons as a means of deterring its enemies and sets out the scenarios under which it would consider using them.

Why did Russia announce it now?

• Putin had spoken publicly about the key points of the new doctrine on 25 September.
• This decree came on the same day that Ukraine fired US-supplied ATACMS missiles into Russia for the first time in the war.
• But some security analysts played down the timing, saying it was understandable that the state bureaucracy had taken weeks to draft and publish the document following Putin’s instructions.

How does the new doctrine apply to the Ukraine war?

• It states that any aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear state that is carried out with the participation or support of a nuclear state will be considered a joint attack.
• It lists additional scenarios under which Moscow would consider a nuclear response, including if it had reliable information about the launch of a massive cross-border air attack on Russia using planes, missiles and drones.
• Ukraine has staged frequent air attacks, mostly with drones but now also with US missiles, to degrade Russia’s ability to strike Ukrainian troops, cities and energy infrastructure.

What are the other key changes?

• Much of the language is unchanged from 2020, but there are a number of alterations and additions that in effect lower the threshold for Russian nuclear use.
• Russia is officially placing close ally Belarus under its nuclear umbrella. Russia now says it may use nuclear weapons in the event of a conventional attack against itself or Belarus that “creates a critical threat to their sovereignty or territorial integrity”.
• Previously, Russia had said it might meet a conventional attack with nuclear weapons “when the very existence of the state is placed under threat”.
• Russia says its nuclear deterrent is aimed not only at other nuclear states but also at other countries that allow their land, water or airspace to be used to prepare or conduct aggression against it.

What other threats could prompt Russia to go nuclear?

• The document lists several new risks and scenarios which could prompt Russia to consider a nuclear response.
• These include creation of new military coalitions, or expansion of existing ones, that move enemy military infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders, and planning or carrying out large-scale military exercises near Russia’s borders, etc.