By Dr. A. R. Khan
A sprawling ghost city of concrete and steel, scarred by decades of conflict, lies just north of Kabul.
This is Bagram Air Base, and for a generation, its name was synonymous with America's longest war. But what if this isn't just a relic of the past, but a key to the future? The question has been propelled back into global consciousness by U.S. President Donald Trump, who recently, during a visit to the UK, declared his administration's desire to "get it back" and warned of "bad things" if it wasn't handed back to the USA. This isn't just a nostalgic yearning for a lost asset; it's a calculated move on the Eurasian chessboard, a strategic play whose ripples will be felt from Beijing to New Delhi.
The Evolution of an "Empire's Airfield"
To understand Bagram's current significance, one must first trace its layered history, a history that mirrors the tumultuous geopolitical shifts in the region. The base's past is not linear; it is a tale of shifting allegiances and evolving purpose.
1. The Cold War Origins (1950s-1970s): A Soviet and American Story
The story of Bagram is a tale of empires. The base was not initially a US project, but rather a product of the Cold War rivalry between the Soviet Union and the United States. In the 1950s, the Soviets began constructing the airfield, a move that was part of a larger effort to expand their influence in Afghanistan. Ironically, the US also provided some support to the Afghan Air Force during this period. The base's early days were marked by a pivotal moment in 1959 when US President Dwight Eisenhower landed at Bagram, a symbolic gesture of American engagement with the Afghan monarchy.
2. The Soviet Hub (1980s): The Launchpad for Invasion
When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, Bagram's destiny was sealed as a primary military hub. For a decade, it served as the nerve center for Moscow's brutal war. Its runways were the launchpads for fighter jets, helicopter gunships, and transport planes that prosecuted the war against the Mujahideen. The base, however, was also a constant target, with relentless attacks from Afghan fighters underscoring its vulnerability and strategic importance.
3. The Civil War Battleground (1990s): From Empire to Anarchy
Following the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, Bagram, like much of Afghanistan, plunged into civil war. The base fell into disrepair, becoming a battleground for warring Afghan factions. Its control was contested between the Northern Alliance and the Taliban, with its bombed-out control tower serving as a grim observation post.
4. The American Metropolis (2001-2021): A Fortress in the Desert
The 9/11 attacks and the subsequent US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 brought a new era of transformation for Bagram. American forces found the base in ruins, but what followed was a monumental construction project. Billions of dollars were poured into its expansion, transforming it from a dilapidated Soviet remnant into a fortified mini-city. At its peak, Bagram was a self-contained military metropolis, boasting two massive runways, a hospital, sprawling barracks, gyms, and even fast-food chains. It was the principal logistics and operations hub for US and NATO forces, the "heart, lungs, and brain" of the entire war effort. It was also, notoriously, a detention center, earning it the grim moniker of "Afghanistan's Guantanamo." The abrupt and chaotic US withdrawal in 2021, which saw the base abandoned in the middle of the night, left a strategic vacuum and a symbolic wound.
The Geography and Geopolitics of Bagram
Bagram's significance is not just historical; it is fundamentally tied to its location. Situated just 40 kilometers north of Kabul in the Parwan province, its geography places it at a critical crossroads of Central, South, and West Asia.
- Proximity to Kabul: Its close proximity to the capital made it a central hub for all logistical and counterterrorism operations.
- Connectivity to Central Asia: The base is strategically located near the Salang Pass Tunnel, a crucial link connecting Kabul to Northern Afghanistan and, more importantly, to Central Asia and Russia.
- Regional Surveillance: Bagram's location offered a critical vantage point for intelligence gathering and surveillance across a vast, volatile region, including Iran, Pakistan, and the Central Asian states.
The Geopolitical Gambit: Why Bagram is a New Frontline
President Trump's recent remarks in the UK, where he stated his administration was "trying to get it back" and warned of "bad things" if the Taliban did not comply, have put Bagram back in the global spotlight. This isn't just a nostalgic yearning for a lost asset; it is rooted in a clear, and controversial, strategic calculation.
The primary reason cited by Trump and many analysts is the base's proximity to Chinese nuclear sites. While the claim that Bagram is "exactly one hour away from where China makes its nuclear missiles" might be an exaggeration, it points to a significant truth. Bagram is located approximately 1,500 miles from key Chinese nuclear sites in the Xinjiang region, including the Lop Nur nuclear test site and newly discovered missile silo fields near Hami and Yumen. Compared to the US's closest military base in the Philippines, which is over 3,000 miles away, Bagram offers an unparalleled vantage point for monitoring China's nuclear modernization and military activities in a highly sensitive area.
For the US, a return to Bagram would mean:
- Intelligence and Surveillance: The ability to conduct advanced aerial and signal intelligence operations against Chinese and Russian activity in Central Asia.
- Counterterrorism: A launchpad for counterterrorism missions against groups like ISIS-K and al-Qaeda, whose presence in the region continues to pose a threat.
- Power Projection: A tangible symbol of American return and a counterbalance to the growing influence of China and Russia in the region.
However, the Taliban has firmly rejected any possibility of a renewed US military presence, stating that Afghanistan will not be a base for foreign troops. China, too, has warned against actions that could "escalate regional tensions," emphasizing that Afghanistan's future should be determined by its own people.
India's Stake in the Game: A Delicate Balance
India, a rising power with significant strategic interests in its neighborhood, watches the Bagram saga with keen interest. The US's sudden and chaotic withdrawal in 2021 left a power vacuum that has been filled by a new alignment of forces, including the Taliban, Pakistan, and China. India's decades-long investment in a democratic Afghanistan, including over $3 billion in aid and infrastructure projects, was brought to an abrupt halt. A US return to Bagram, while seemingly a distant possibility, would have a complex and multifaceted impact on India's strategic calculations:
- A Check on Pakistan: A renewed US military presence could be a check on Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan, which has long been a source of security concerns for India. India has long been wary of Pakistan's use of Afghanistan as "strategic depth" against India. A US presence could disrupt this dynamic and force Pakistan to re-evaluate its Afghan policy.
- Counterbalance to China: From an Indian perspective, an American base so close to Chinese nuclear sites could serve as a valuable counterbalance to China's growing power. It could create a "double or triple stretch" on China, forcing Beijing to divert resources to its western border, thereby easing pressure on India's northern borders along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). This would be a significant strategic advantage for India.
- Intelligence and Counter-Terrorism Cooperation: A US presence could facilitate intelligence sharing on terror groups that pose a direct threat to India, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, whose activities in Afghanistan remain a major concern.
- Strategic Autonomy vs. Alignment: While a US return could offer strategic benefits, it could also put India in a difficult position, forcing it to choose between its longstanding policy of strategic autonomy and an informal alignment with the US in a great power rivalry. India's recent diplomatic outreach to the Taliban, including providing humanitarian aid, indicates a pragmatic approach that seeks to maintain its own foothold in the region, independent of the major powers. India's long-term goal is to secure its own interests in a stable Afghanistan, which is a key part of its vision for regional connectivity and trade routes to Central Asia. A renewed US military presence could complicate these efforts by creating a new source of instability.
The Chinese Connection: The Dragon's Gaze
The connection between Bagram and China's nuclear capacity is at the very heart of the current geopolitical debate. China's Xinjiang province, which shares a short border with Afghanistan, is not only a major hub for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) but also home to its expanding nuclear arsenal.
- Nuclear Expansion: Satellite imagery has confirmed that China is rapidly building hundreds of new missile silos in the deserts of Xinjiang. This expansion is a key part of China's military modernization and a shift in its nuclear strategy.
- Strategic Vulnerability: For the US, losing Bagram means losing the ability to monitor these developments up close. The base, with its capacity to handle large surveillance aircraft, would be a critical asset for intelligence gathering on China's nuclear and military activities.
A "New Battleground": The contest over Bagram is not about the past but about the future. It represents a new front in the US-China rivalry, a battle for influence and intelligence in a strategically vital region. While the Taliban has denied any Chinese military presence at the base, and China has no known military footprint there, the speculation and strategic thinking on both sides is intense. The possibility of China using the abandoned infrastructure for its own BRI projects or to gain a forward operating base near India is a major concern for both the US and India.
Conclusion: The Enduring Strategic Ghost
The ghost of Bagram Air Base haunts the corridors of power in Washington, Kabul, Beijing, and New Delhi. It is a potent symbol of American failure and a potential flashpoint for a new kind of geopolitical conflict. The base's evolution from a Cold War artifact to a central node in the "War on Terror" and now to a pawn in the US-China rivalry offers a masterclass in global affairs.
The question of whether the US will ever return to Bagram is open, but what is clear is that the strategic value of this piece of land has only grown. The dust that swirls around its runways is a visible sign of the shifting sands of power in Central Asia, and the world is watching to see who will be brave enough, or foolish enough, to step onto this new, high-stakes battlefield.
