GS Paper II

News Excerpt:

The outcome of the Lok Sabha elections will send strategic signals to the neighbourhood and the world about the direction in which India is headed in 2024 and beyond. 

• Next year could be one of the most consequential for Indian foreign policy and strategy.

Strategic realities across the world in 2023:

• Crisis in the Middle East: 

• • Two years of sustained effort to normalise ties between Israel and the Arab world was disrupted by the Hamas attack.
  • The Israeli-Arab reconciliation process has been derailed for now.

• Stress in India-US Ties: 

• • Bilateral ties between India and USA are facing headwinds over allegations of an Indian official linked to an assassination plot against a Khalistani separatist in the US.
• Russia-Ukraine War Fatigue: 
  • As the war drags on, the West is facing funding challenges. 
  • The assistance has been blocked - by Republicans in the US Congress and by Hungary in the EU - so far.
  • The Russian economy has been resilient despite sanctions, and the proximity between Moscow and Beijing worries the West.
• India’s Maldives Challenge: 
  • The government of President Mohamed Muizzu, who rode an “India Out” campaign to power, has asked India to withdraw military personnel stationed in the Maldives and conveyed its intention to terminate a water survey pact. 
  • The Muizzu establishment is considered close to China.

• China, the biggest worry: 

• • China continues to be India’s biggest worry and strategic challenge. 
  • The border standoff is in its fourth winter, with the force posture being maintained to rival the Chinese military presence. 
  • The dependence of Moscow, India’s strategic defence partner, on Beijing for economic survival, and the Maldives getting closer to China in the Indian Ocean have added to the concern.

• G20, Global South Positioning: 

• • India’s success in negotiating a joint declaration at the G20 summit came as a surprise for many in the international community. 
  • A big takeaway from the G20 process was New Delhi’s mobilisation of developing and less developed countries under the umbrella of the Global South. 
  • The idea of leading the Global South is seen as taking forward the legacy of India’s Non-Alignment leadership, only adapted to the 21st century.

• Towards Engagement in Kabul: 

• However, India is engaging with the Taliban - a technical team has been posted at the embassy in Kabul.
• The Afghan embassy in New Delhi is coordinating with the regime to provide passport and visa services for Afghan nationals.

Challenges and opportunities for India in 2024:

• US & Canada Relationships: 
  • A challenge lies in resolving the situation arising from the ‘assassination plot’ in the US. 
  • Biden’s unavailability for the Republic Day celebrations may have caused some irritation in New Delhi, and the Quad summit has had to be put off for a later date.
  • Dealing with the US will not be the same as dealing with Canada, and New Delhi will not club them together.
• New Government in Pakistan: 
  • Since 2019, when the constitutional changes in Jammu and Kashmir were effected, ties with Pakistan have been at a low. 

• Outcome in Bangladesh: 

• • Bilateral ties have gained positive momentum in the last 15 years of the Sheikh Hasina government, and New Delhi will be keen to see her return to power in the elections due early in the new year. 
  • India will also look to improve connectivity between its Northeast and Bangladesh to a high gear, which will benefit both the region and the countries.

• Continuing deadlock with China: 

• • India will be extra careful in responding to a challenge from its biggest adversary in an election year.
• Seeking a way forward in West Asia: 
  • The Israel - Palestine conflict has tested India’s position and has seen it evolve during this period. 
  • From early support for Israel to nuancing its position and balancing with Palestine to calling for a ceasefire in the last UN vote, India’s diplomatic positioning has followed an arc closely watched by many in the Global South. 

• Future of the war in Ukraine: 

• • The Russia-Ukraine war has tested India’s position, too. 
  • Imports of Russian oil have been key to India’s efforts to keep domestic prices low. 
  • But pressure from the US has kept India from giving Moscow a carte blanche.

• Trade Pacts, Tech Partnerships with West: 

• The free trade pacts with the UK and European partners are at a critical stage. 
• Dialogues with the US and EU on technology and trade to remove the barriers to India's access to high tech in AI, quantum computing, and cybersecurity will be a related policy space to look out for.

Way forward:

• The most serious challenge is the rise of China and how it has managed to constrain India’s options. 
  • India’s first priority in the coming years will be to internally consolidate its capabilities so that it can stand up to China’s nefarious designs on a more sustained basis. 
  • This will have to be supplemented by building serious partnerships that are capable of adding value to India’s growth story.
• As a large part of the world sours on China, there is a need to become an attractive partner. 
  • This will require making some choices. 
  • The basis of these choices should not be to make the world multipolar or enhance any chimerical strategic space. 
  • The only basis should be how these choices strengthen India’s long-term capabilities to emerge as a singular player on the global stage in its own right.
• India’s G20 Presidency aimed to move the world away from polarisation towards a greater sense of solidarity.
  • Its own reality of being a multicultural democracy should guide it well in bringing together highly diverse stakeholders to cogitate and act on global challenges.

Mains PYQ

Q. ‘The long-sustained image of India as a leader of the oppressed and marginalised nations has disappeared on account of its new found role in the emerging global order.’ Elaborate. (UPSC 2019)