GS Paper II

News Excerpt:

If the goals of war are unclear or ill-defined, it is possible to become entangled in a never-ending and unwinnable conflict.

Wars with an end:

• In 1971, millions of refugees from erstwhile East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) poured into India due to the atrocities of the Pakistan Army. 
• The goal was to create conditions for the return of the refugees to their homeland.
• Peaceful political and diplomatic ways could achieve this, but if not successful, the military option was also open, which we had to resort to. 
• The Indian Armed Forces succeeded in capturing the whole of East Pakistan, leading to the creation of a new nation, Bangladesh, where the displaced persons could return. 
• However, even if Bangladesh had not been successfully liberated, as long as sufficient swathes of territory were captured for the refugees to return to, the political aim would still have been achieved. 
• There was, therefore, an inbuilt exit strategy or alternate option.

Wars without an end:

• The Indian involvement in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 1990, a fallout of the Indo-Sri Lanka Peace Accord, was a different story. 
• The Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) was sent to maintain the peace and act as a buffer between the Sri Lankan army and various Tamil militant groups. 
• However, the IPKF soon found itself battling the very same groups it was sent in to protect. 
• There was no clear-cut political or military goal and certainly no exit strategy. 
• When the IPKF returned after suffering about 1,200 casualties, there was nothing to show for their efforts, neither in the political nor military arenas.
• The two ongoing conflicts - the first between Ukraine and Russia and the second between Israel and Hamas - show a similar lack of direction. 
• Since the operation was launched in February 2022, it has not ended.

India’s operations with no result:

• India is no stranger to terrorist strikes and has responded appropriately when provoked. However, these responses were more to assuage public sentiment and did little to solve the problem per se. 
• For instance, in June 2015, India launched Operation Hot Pursuit along the Myanmar-India border in response to the killing of 18 soldiers of the Indian Army in Manipur by terrorists of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland–Khaplang, or NSCN-K. The operation, which reportedly killed between 30 to 40 NSCN-K cadres, was a success, but Indian insurgent groups continue to thrive in camps in Myanmar.
• Similarly, the Indian Air Force launched Operation Bandar, pre-emptive air strikes on terrorist training infrastructure in Pakistan’s Balakot, as a  response to the Pulwama terrorist attack in which 40 CRPF personnel were killed.
• The Air Force rose to the occasion, but what was achieved in the long run is unclear.

Impact of war between countries:

• Economic impact:

• • The war affects economic costs and inflation; it causes uncertainty, a rise in debt, and disruption of normal economic activity, among many other things.
    • The opportunity cost of the resources used to prosecute the war
    • The loss of lives and destruction of physical and human capital during the war
    • The reduction of GDP per capita was measured during and following the war.

• Displacement and Refugees:

• • Over 38 million people have been displaced in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, the Philippines, Libya, and Syria, either abroad or within their own countries, and are living in deplorable conditions.
  • They face challenges like lack of access to food, health care, housing, employment, clean water and sanitation, and loss of community and homes.

• Social and Cultural Disruption:

• • War leads to damage to historical and cultural sites.
  • War destroys communities and families and often disrupts the development of the social and economic fabric of nations. 
  • The effects of war include long-term physical and psychological harm to children and adults, as well as a reduction in material and human capital.

• Environmental Consequences:

• • Weapons and military materials used during conflicts also leave environmental legacies. 
  • Land mines, cluster munitions, and other explosive remnants of war can restrict access to agricultural land and pollute soils and water sources with metals and toxic energetic materials.

• Global impact:

• It disrupts international order and changes relations with other countries.
• Trade interruptions, resource scarcity, and financial instability in warring countries impact global markets.

Issues of refugees due to war:

As per the 1951 United Nations Convention, a refugee is defined as an individual who: "owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable or  unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country."

• They face challenges like - 

• The denial of civil rights and services
• The fear of deportation, 
• Anxiety about the future
• Difficulties in renewing visas
• Increasing people’s vulnerability to the negative impacts of loss of employment, 
• Inability to access public services such as clean drinking water, environmental contamination, and reverberating trauma and violence.

Conclusion:

India will likely face many provocative conflicts in the future across all dimensions – land, sea, and air. Therefore, the need of the hour is for India to anticipate likely threats and plan, prepare, and rehearse its responses rather than improvise after an incident. The latter approach runs the risk of India getting sucked into an escalating spiral of violence.